SJ Research Services

The SJ Research Services (SJR) team has a wealth of experience in conducting various economic impact analyses ranging from the economic development implications of a new manufacturing plant, facility, or tourism development to the assessment of an entire industry or sector's contribution to the provincial and regional economy in question.

1. Regulatory – Environmental Impact Assessment

2. Required as part of grant funding

3. Lobbying efforts – for example road construction/resurfacing, short line railway, or government support for an industry or event.

4. Public Relations – a “feel good” story. What is the value of an event/infrastructure/facility to the local/provincial/national economy?

5. Part of a larger piece of analysis-Sector studies, supply chain analysis.

SJR offers a full suite of economic impact tools covering a wide range of areas and demographics to allow for comprehensive analysis of any project.

The core model is an economic impact model that is rectangular in nature with 35 industries and 66 commodities and is based on the latest available Statistics Canada’s provincial and national Input-Output tables. The core model is updated annually within weeks of the release of the latest data. Core model results are typically: Annual incremental gross output Gross domestic product Employment Labor income and Fiscal impacts for all 3 levels of Government (Federal, Provincial, and Municipal) Results are expressed in terms of direct, indirect, and induced impacts and can be disaggregated to the 35-industry level.

This module measures how major projects are expected to impact population growth through in-migration. The Population Module also measures how in-migration, in turn, is expected to have a lasting impact on region demographics through natural population changes (births less deaths). For the Population Module, SJR links the Core Model results to a demographic forecasting model.

This module can be used to estimate GDP and employment impacts for a region or community in the province, as specified by the user. Included in regional impacts will be municipal revenues (property taxes, fees, and licenses). Rest of Province impacts (provincial impacts outside of the local study area) will be calculated as the difference between provincial and local impacts. This Regional Module is a community hierarchy model where SJ Research Services “regionalizes” the Core Model.

This module provides a more thorough representation of the impact of a project on government revenues. Typical economic impact models will only provide results in terms of indirect taxes. For the Fiscal Module, SJR’s Core Model is extended to include personal income taxes, corporate and unincorporated business taxes, as well as resource revenues, and excise taxes. The Fiscal Module is updated annually upon the release of the Federal and Provincial government budgets.

SJR’s methodology of sourcing industry data at federal, provincial, and municipal levels allows for a wide range of customization when building an economic model allowing the end result to fit your needs. These different levels of comparison create a significant amount of flexibility when analyzing your local economy. With the ability to generate input-output tables revolving around all key economic indicators, SJR is able to design models directly relating to your specific region.

Whether you want to define your region as a single small community, municipality, First Nation, major city, province, or at the national level, we have the power to create your model to suite your needs. Our economic models are entirely customizable and can be tailored as necessary, with experience in all types of industries and all sizes of communities you will be able to find a model perfect for the needs of your project.

Models are designed so that users of varying skill levels and backgrounds can create cost effective, accurate, reproducible economic reports that demonstrate the detailed effects of local changes on industries and households.

Dr. David Foot David K. Foot, Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of Toronto, contends that demographics explains two-thirds of everything -- whether the subject is business planning, marketing, human resources, career planning, corporate organization, the stock market, housing, education, health, recreation, leisure, and social and global trends. SJR has vast experiences at providing demographic forecasting at the provincial, census division, City, and small community level.

Building on SJR’s demographic forecasting expertise, population forecasting by school age cohorts is done in two phases and tailored to each community. First, relevant demographic data, such as average birth rates and immigration rates are gathered from provincial censuses. Secondly, current enrollments by school by grade are collected, for example, grade 2 enrollment for 2022-2023 school year equals the 2021-2022 school year grade 1 enrollments plus 2022-2023 net migration for 7-year-olds for the community. Projections will need specific manual adjustments made to account for any outside circumstances, such as students with special needs or students attending a school from outside of the community.

Forecast results will be a multi-year population by age group and gender forecast, as well as measures of wealth (personal income, wages and salaries, gross domestic product), employment by industry, labour income, and housing requirements across the continuum of demand: assisted, market (ownership and rental) and senior. Other key outputs from the demographic forecasts will be school aged population (driving primary and secondary education demand) and senior population driving, in part, health demand and retirement living demand. In short, results of the future state assessment can be used by your community to answer the question: “What economic development strategy is most likely to achieve our community’s population, employment and wealth generation goals over the next decade?”

Building on small area economic forecasting, SJR has developed a robust methodology for efficiently utilizing the available land and labour available to a region. Using forecasted employment for the region, land use requirements will be based on a similar study conducted for the city of Edmonton. This study estimated floor area requirements per employee across 13 industries. Projected labour demand figures will be translated into land area requirements using site coverage ratios typical for each industry. Site coverage constitutes the percentage of a site that is covered by the built environment. An inventory of unused commercial and industrial land will then be conducted to confirm whether said unused land has any current plans for development or intended used within the next 5-10 years. This inventory will assist in determining if a region has the availability within their market to absorb the industrial use planed, and if the estimated population growth will be able to support the plans in terms of providing adequate employment and services. To further predict the region’s land use, a summary of adverse economic and social impacts will be generated and compared against existing demand to determine the long-term viability of the project and determine if it will require more land resources than allocated.

Building on the SJR demographic forecasting models, SJR has developed a proprietorial methodology for conducting forecasts based on average household size, propensity to relocate permanently, and residual household formation.

“In a period of economic downturn, the overwhelming instinct is to pare back, cut costs, and lay off. If you do that, do so with your strategy in mind. The worst mistake is to cut across the board. Instead, reconnect and recommit to a clear strategy that will distinguish yourself from others.” Michael Porter SJR has extensive expertise in economic development analytics. This data will focus your economic development and investment attraction activities to the most productive and valuable opportunities that will be emerging over the coming decade. SJR Research proposes an intensive study to develop a meaningful set of descriptive and predictive data by 2 to 3 digit North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) categories, select 6-8 key industrial industries for preliminary assessment and begin the study of “supply chains” and “clusters” for these industries. In an environment characterized by imperfect information, the accurate identification of industry as “strategic” sectors for a region is crucial. These sectors, by definition, generate the greatest increases in regional income and the best investment performance. SJR proposes a detailed examination of each industry’s strengths and weaknesses. These will be expressed in terms of GDP, import-export, employment, sales, capital expenditures, and number of employers. Other metrics to be developed include location quotients, backward and forward linkages, productivity, export orientation, domestic resource cost, and value-added contribution to gross output. These findings will help your economic development professionals to identify companies and sectors poised for growth that are most suited to regional advantage and interests.

SJR has considerable experience in developing comprehensive economic report cards to evaluate a regions performance across a range of variables. Analyzing a region’s past and present performance in several key economic indicators, such as employment by industry, housing starts, and building permits, allows for a full-scale evaluation on economic growth. This also allows for a reasonable forecast of the level of future economic performance that can be expected by a region.

Forecasting the demand and supply of labour within a sector involves a separate process for each. Determining labour demand involves determining market share, attrition rate within the sector, and total sector growth within a given time period. Demand for labour within a sector is determined using various data within the sector, such as average age, retirement frequency, as well as the number of graduates from relevant feeder institutions which contribute to the sector. This data allows for the forecasting of the reliability and growth of a sector within a realistic time period.

SJR has significant experience in analyzing the performance of all sectors and industries, utilizing data sourced from the OECD and NAICS which aid in differentiating sectors to allow for a more precise and in- depth analysis as well as track changes in employment and fiscal performance. Key to this analysis will be the estimation of impacts at the regional/community level for the area expected to be impacted by the operation. Regional level impacts will be estimated by constructing a separate economic impact model for the region using regional employment by industry to estimate regional output, a community hierarchy model to assess regional trade flows and leakages, and re- balancing to ensure model cohesiveness. These impacts will then be assessed from two different stand-points, capital spending and productivity. Capital spending will be set as an exogenous shock to the relevant economies to allow for the modeling of investment impacts. Productivity impacts involve taking the proposed improvements and converting them into economic output, this will be done by deriving either the dollar or percent productivity improvements per dollar invested. Improvements to productivity will then be converted to improvements in economic output and used to shock the model.